The World’s Fair of 1939 promised that the future of transportation would be bold, exciting and airborne – cars would no longer be bound to the road. Instead, we would soar freely through the heavens in our cars of the sky.
Of course, this
aerocar dream hasn’t come to pass. But for the optimistic technologist of the 40s and 50s, the concept of the flying car–a kind of airplane that would render the traditional car obsolete–was intoxicating. Think about it: why would the world need both airplanes AND cars?
The same question is being asked today with regard to Web 2.0. Why would we need both Web applications and desktop software? Surely Web apps will soon completely replace desktop software! The benefits of using the same software but getting a more interactive and better sharing experience make this a no-brainer (check out
my take on these benefits and Web 1.0 versus Web 2.0).
While Web applications are most certainly more viable than the flying car – indeed Web apps are delivering a ton of value worldwide today – saying that traditional software is close to being replaced by applications on the Internet remind me of our unfulfilled aerocar dreams of the past. The desktop is going to be around for a long time to come.
Here’s a few reasons to why the metaphorical flying car of Web 2.0 dominance won’t come about any time soon:
First, we can’t expect the mainstream PC user to make a complete leap to Web based software in the short term. Realistically, most non-techies just don’t care where or what they use to perform their common computing tasks. A lot of us – people who work with or in technology – get really excited about how technology works and what technology we use to perform a certain task. But the majority of people don’t. They just want things to work (Note - if you are reading this while standing in line waiting for an iPhone you aren’t part of the majority).
Second, there continues to be real technical limitations that will hold us back from a Web-only application experience. Internet connectivity still isn’t ubiquitous and won’t be anytime soon. Even when you do have the Web connections you want, things can still be slow and unresponsive (the Office 2.0 conference last year in San Francisco saw multiple demonstrations slowed or stalled by poor connectivity, despite being held in what’s arguably the most wired city in the world). Where connectivity is lacking, local capability is required.
Third, another reason not everything will go to the web is that processors and memory are cheap. People like having computing horsepower at their fingertips (whether they are connected or not) and the rich applications to match.
These three trends indicate why the Web won’t dominate our application mix in the near future, but its very clear that Web apps simply offer too much value for the desktop to go it alone. Thus, the answer lies between the two, with a hybrid, on-and-off-line approach to computing dominating PC users’ computing experience for many years to come.
Our WordPerfect Lightning directly reflects this belief. Even before we introduced WordPerfect Lightning, we found that people chose to work in a hybrid manner–performing some tasks online and others offline – usually with disparate tools in a market where no vendor was stepping up to address the hybrid approach PC users where already taking.
WordPerfect Lightning marks our attempt to address how people really work today and with Lightning we’re striving to help PC users by addressing the right things online and the right things offline. You can see others now following this same path - e.g. Google offering both a connected and disconnected experience with Google Gears.
When you think of this approach it makes perfect sense (shameless sponsor plug). When airplanes were developed they were a wonderful way to travel, but they did not replace the car. The car allows you to still do things and has benefits the airplane can not provide. Yes, over time, maybe we will all get personal aircraft and we will erase some of those benefits that will make the airplane a more appropriate vehicle. But, I expect I will still get stuck behind the guy with a flashing right turn light in the fast lane!
So, love your desktop, love your Internet. Find the right balance for you. And as you make software choices make sure the product you choose has a plan that fits with what you want to do.